A wide array of statistics and policy actions were reported this week that failed to satisfy the gloom and doomers. Economic statistics, while weak, are generally not falling off a cliff, and continue to support my view that we can avoid an economy wide recession. It’s still too early to declare victory over the gloomy ones, but many parts of the economy are looking stable, and in fact, looking up.Continue reading "Economic Statistics failed to Satisfy the Gloom and Doomers" »
"On April 10th, Senator McCain stated that the Bush Administration should halt oil purchases for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). He makes a very good point. Over the last eight months..."
To read the rest of Lincoln Anderson's newest market update, please click on the link below:
" The Subprime mortgage crisis that began in August of 2007-and a series of other financial sector events that battered stocks for months - will likely be remembered as a very turbulent time for investors. But, there is more than a century of proof that despite periodic downturns in stock prices, ....."
To view the he rest of this article from Oppenheimer, please click on the link below:
This is an article from the Seattle Times discussing one of the reasons why housing prices are so high. To see this article, please click on the link below:
http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2004181704_eicher14.html
Tax Freedom Day® will fall on April 23 in 2008, according to the Tax Foundation's annual calculation using the latest government data on income and taxes. That’s three days earlier than in 2007. Stimulus rebates and a projection of slow growth in 2008 are the principal reasons for the earlier celebration.
So what can a firm that helps people with their finances do to celebrate Earth Day? Actually, we ask ourselves this question all year around and what follows is what we have come up with. Maybe it will encourage you as you think through your choices. Liz and I are avid backpackers and students of the natural world, as are a number of people here in the firm, so environmental issues are very important to us.
"Earth Day marks the anniversary of the birth of the modern environmental movement. This movement can cite some important successes. Environmental efforts established many years ago are paying off with ....... "
To see the rest of this LPL article on how how climate changes affect investors, please click on the link below:
"Residents of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho cut per capita gasoline consumption by 11 percent from 1999 to 2007, or nearly a gallon a week on average, according to a new report by Sightline Institute, a sustainability think tank".
To see the rest of this Puget Sound Business Journal article, please click on the link below:
http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/stories/2008/04/14/daily27.html?f=et80&ana=e_du
LPL Insured Cash Account Program - FDIC insurance up to $2 million for joint account holders
On Friday March 14, 2008, King5 News did a piece on the current market situation and interviewed MWBoone's & Associates own Aimée Huff, CFP, CFA for the piece. Please click on the link below to see the full clip:
http://www.king5.com/video/index.html?nvid=227257
Continue reading "MWBoone & Associates' Aimée Huff, CFP, CFA on King 5 News" »
LPL's John Canally has put out his weekly economic update. To see this article, please click on the link below:
Well, one of my least favorite days of the year – April 15 – is approaching. So if I sound a little grumpy, it’s because of our looming tax deadline, poor equity performance over the first quarter, market volatility, high oil prices and further revelations of egregious behavior by some big banks and mortgage originators. The S&P 500 stock price index fell 9.9% over the first quarter, with all 10 sectors down. Employment also fell over the quarter, with payroll employment down 232,000 and the unemployment rate up slightly to 5.1%. Does this data signal the onset of a recession? Possibly, but if so, I continue to expect it will be mild. The Federal Reserve has been very aggressive with interest rate cuts and really big balance sheet operations to take risk off bank and primary dealer balance sheets.
MWBoone & Associates, LLC, presents: Prepare for Your Power Years. This is a workshop that is aimed at helping you learn how to live your dream.
“I have been helping clients for over two decades and this is the best life planning presentation I have seen
~ Michael W. Boone, CFP, CFA
There are still many reasons to like Tech, though heightened recession risk warrants some caution. To see these reasons and the rest of the article, please click on the link below:
LPL's Lincoln Anderson has put out another weekly commentary. To see this article, please click on the link below:
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/lpl_lincoln_Anderson_4_1_08.pdf
Continue reading "Feeling the Real Estate Freeze, Vacation Homes Might Be a Warm Spot" »
Jeff Kleintop, Chief Economic Strategist at LPL Financial has put out a new weekly market update. To view this market piece, please click on the link below:
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/WeeklyMarketCommentary_3_25_08.pdf
LPL's Lincoln Anderson has put out the newest market update, for the week March 18-21. To see this article, please click on the link below:
Continue reading "Most People Don’t Have Enough Disability Insurance ─ Don’t Make That Mistake" »
Continue reading "Get A Head Start On Tax Planning For 2008" »
I have to say honestly – as I always do – that this sub-prime problem is obviously bigger than I anticipated. The amount of leverage in “hedge” funds and many of the big banks has caused some serious dislocations. Also, we have had bad actors – some secondary mortgage companies that have not allowed folks to refinance their first mortgages, primary dealers that have backed away from supporting auction rate securities markets, predatory lenders, etc. The scope of this problem also caught the Treasury and the Federal Reserve (Fed) by surprise, but they are catching up fast.
Are you confident in your ability to achieve financial freedom? Do you have a fear of becoming financially destitute? Are you equipped with the knowledge and skills required to ensure financial security over your lifetime? LPL's Lincoln Anderson has a brand new commentary piece on the current price of gold and the reasoning behind the dramatic increase in price. To see this article, please click on the link below:
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/Lincoln_Anderson_FoolsGold_3_5_08.pdf.
Have you ever wondered what they are or whether they are an appropriate investment for you?
An oil and gas partnership is a direct investment in exploration and production for energy resources. These investments have minimum net worth and income thresholds, although do not generally require accredited investors. Investors typically receive monthly cash distributions (these are not guaranteed) that will continue as long as there are productive wells, years into the future.
Continue reading "It’s Time to Start Thinking About the Estate Tax Again" »
Your weekly Update on Risks and Opportunities in the financial markets from LPL's Jeff kleintop. To see this article, please click on the link below:
If you are over 65 and enrolled in Medicare, or if your parents (or grandparents) are over 65 and enrolled in Medicare, check on coverage for prescription drugs and make any changes during the Medicare Part D open enrollment period, November 15-December 31, 2007. (NOTE: if you are over 65, enrolled in Medicare, AND have prescription drug coverage through a Medicare Advantage plan OR are receiving prescription drug coverage through an employer sponsored retiree health plan, enrolling in Part D may cancel some of your insurance coverage and generally should NOT be done without consulting your current insurance plan.)Continue reading "Financial To Do List: Medicare Part D Open Enrollment" »
Lincoln Anderson's PowerPoint on the current state of the economy. To view the powerpoint, please click on the link below:
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/Economic_Update_Feb_22_2008.ppt
It is commonly accepted that the P/E (Price Earnings Ratio) is a key metric in evaluating the not only individual stocks but the valuation of the stock market as a whole.
P/E ratios for the US stock market are generally understood to reflect fair valuation when they range between 14 and 20. Exactly where depends on many factors including interest rates and whether looking at current year, trailing 12-month or forward twelve months.
Continue reading "Stock Market Observations: Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratios -- Check Your Numbers" »
Financial markets continue to be roiled by sub-prime mortgage concerns. And a number of doom and gloom prognosticators are saying we are in a recession or predicting recession. I continue to disagree with these gloomy assessments of the U.S. economy. I am confident we are not in a recession, and I do not expect a recession this year.
“A single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. All you need is a single black [one].
” From “The Black Swan”
By Nassim Taleb (2007)
The mortgage crisis meets the description of a “black swan”. Recently, the Wall Street Journal published a description of how one trader (Mr. John Paulson) was able to profit handsomely from betting on this “black swan”. (January 15, 2008, Trader Made Billions on Subprime). How handsomely? Profits of $15 billion in 2007, nearly equal to Citigroup write-offs reported in their December 31 quarterly earnings announcement.
Continue reading "The Dismal Science -- Economics: Black Swans and the Mortgage Crisis fine’" »
There are some very basic things about investing that few people ever seem to fully grasp. The most obvious is that investing at low prices is better than investing at high prices. I should be able to end this piece here and let you figure out the implications, but since they seem so little understood I feel compelled to explain some.
Continue reading "Keep Investing: Bad Markets are Better for Investors" »
We all know that it is more expensive to fill our gas tanks – did you know that there is also a direct relationship to the lower dollar? Many commodities are priced in U.S. dollars (e.g., gold and oil), which makes these items cheaper for non-U.S. citizens to obtain and makes them more expensive for us to purchase. Continue reading "You May Love Each Other, But Should You Invest Together?" »
Continue reading "When Recession Fears Surface, Check Your Plan – Or Make One" »
Continue reading "When is a Prenup a Great Valentine’s Day Gift? When it’s Time to Remarry" »
LPL's Jeff Kleintop has put out a new market update. To see the article, please click on the link below:
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/lpl_thenextbubble_2_12_08.pdf
Another wild week on Wall Street. After staging a solid rebound beginning January 23, the Dow and other stock price indexes took a pounding again on Monday and Tuesday of this week. We are still above the January 22 lows, but not by much. Rereading this last sentence, I see that my focus has shortened a lot, which tends to happen when stock markets become highly volatile. In my experience, that is when about half of investment mistakes are made. The other half usually happen when jumping on bandwagons at market peaks with eyes closed. As one of the great investment gurus, Sir John Templeton, put it – “To buy when others are despondently selling and to sell when others are avidly buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest reward.”
Continue reading "Lincoln Anderson Update for February 8th" »
LPL's Newest Raging Bull on equity market trends. To see this article, please click on the link below:
LPL has put out a new market update for this current week of February 4th. Please click on the link below to see the article:
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/MarketUpdate_Feb_4_2008.pdf
Continue reading "Pay Close Attention to So-Called “Default” Investments" »
LPL Financial has put out an Economy and Financial Markets piece. To read this article, please click on the link below:
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/lpl_economic_update_1_30_08.pdf
An Article presented by American Funds describing how volatile markets can affect savings during a person's retirement. This article is coupled with a quarterly statsitical update from American Funds.
To view the American Funds article, please click on the link below:
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/AF_Preparing.pdf
In this article, LPL's Jeff Kleintop writes on why the price of oil hit $100 a barrel and where the price of oil might be in the future. To read this article please click on the link below.
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/100barrel.pdf
Not that long ago, the idea of a bear market seemed almost inconceivable. For an entire generation of investors, the great bull runs of the 1980s and 1990s were the only markets ever experienced. But the new millennium brought with it a dose of reality, and even novice investors have learned that markets can — and do — go down as well as up.
LPL's Lincoln Anderson has put out another timely Market Update. To read the article please click on the link below:
http://mwboone.com/blog/Market_Update_Jan_22_08.pdf
"A single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. All you need is a single black [one].”
From “The Black Swan”
By Nassim Taleb (2007)
Previously, I posed an observation that the current “mortgage crisis” is a “Black Swan”. If that is so, if one knew in advance that a “Black Swan” was present, what actions could reasonably be taken?
Continue reading "The Dismal Science -- Economics: Black Swans and the Mortgage Crisis Redux" »
In our experience, people tend to look at the stock market in one of two ways. Most people see the market like this, and they are absolutely correct.
Continue reading "Some Perspective on the Stock Market and Volatility" »
The media is now worried about recession. Doom and gloom is everywhere, and the stock market is off to an awful start this year. The Dow is down 6.0% year to date, and the S&P 500 is down 6.5%. Some (the optimists!) are comparing the current “credit market crisis” with 1998, when we had emerging market debt defaults and a big hedge fund named “Long-Term Capital” blew up. Back then, the S&P 500, which had been showing big gains, dropped about as sharply as it has lately and then recovered for nearly two years as the “credit crisis” faded.Continue reading "Market Update from LPL's Lincoln Anderson" »
Robert has completed his coursework and received a passing grade on the Certified Financial Planner ® examination. His remaining requirement for becoming a CFP ® licensee is three years of industry experience. We are proud of his dedication and commitment to obtaining this degree, which is the most recognized and respected in the financial planning profession. Please join us in congratulating Robert for all his hard work!Continue reading "Is Conventional Do-it-yourself Planning Right for You?" »
Celebrities are usually just a little below gambling winners on the “Who you should not take financial advice from” scale. But like all of us, they get older and sometimes even wiser. Money Magazine ran a piece recently featuring answers to questions about money from famous people who are not so young any more. Here is a sampling of their views on money:
I expect a positive 2008 for both the economy and financial markets. Aside from the hit on home construction, home sales and the subprime mess, the U.S. economy is in pretty good shape. The typical set of problems that precede a recession are not in place.
· Is a 54-year-old man married to the same spouse for 28 years. Has three children.
· Has an average household net worth of $9.2 million; annual realized income of $749,000.
· Thirty-two percent are business owners or entrepreneurs; 16 percent are senior corporate executives; 10 percent are attorneys; 9 percent are physicians . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
LPL Research Market Update
U.S. Bank Balance Sheet: Seizing Up or Bulking Up? LPL's Lincoln Anderson provides his insight into current financial market trends. Please click below for the full article.
http://www.mwboone.com/library/articles/lpl_seizing_up_or_bulking_up.pdf
Continue reading "Thinking About Borrowing from Family or Friends? Do It The Right Way." »
Anyone who has paid for gasoline, health care or college tuition lately knows that even if the overall rate of inflation is modest, there are areas where costs are rising more dramatically. Earning returns that exceed the cost of living is important for all investors, but it is especially critical for those who may depend on their portfolios as a source of income.
Continue reading "Planning a Long-Term Strategy? Don’t Forget About Inflation!" »
The first beneficiary of Social Security was Ida May Fuller in 1940. Though she had only paid in a total of $24.75 over three years of taxes, her first monthly retirement benefit check was $22.74. Over Ida's lifetime she received income of almost $23,000, an amount approaching 1,000 times what she put in.
The mortgage insurance company, PMI Inc. did a study of real estate booms and busts in the past to see how long some previous downturns have lasted. They looked at three boom markets: Houston in the ‘80s and Los Angeles, and Boston in the‘90s. Here is what they discovered.Continue reading "A Family Mission Statement Can Keep Family Goals First" »
Continue reading "Say Goodbye to 2007 with Some Smart Tax Moves" »
LPL's Lincoln Anderson and his predictions for 2008:
Sometimes money costs too much. – Ralph Waldo EmersonThere are so many parts of my work that I like that it is hard to pick one favorite. One of the consistently most interesting parts is the interplay between our values and our money. What will we give up for money, and what truly is priceless?
Continue reading "Will Your Kid’s Inheritance Make Her a Monster? Not If You Plan Carefully" »
Continue reading "Business Not So Good? Here’s How to Protect" »
Below, LPL's Lincoln Anderson provides his in depth analysis of where the US economy has been and what recent changes have taken place. The powerpoint version has additional comments but we have also provided an adobe (.pdf) version as well.
Powerpoint:
