MWBoone & Associates Wealth Management blog

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 10:57 AM | Permalink

 This year has been defined by three growth scares. In the first quarter, the markets were focused on a slowdown in China, in the second quarter the concern moved to a slowdown in Europe, and in the third quarter the growth scare has shifted to the United States. In each of the prior quarters, the concern peaked at the midpoint of ……

 In his recent testimony to Congress, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke used the phrase “unusually uncertain” to describe the U.S. economic outlook. The word uncertain was used five times in the statement released at the conclusion of the June 23 meeting, and was used 16 times in the minutes released on July 28. We may see more of the word “uncertain” this week ……

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 10:16 AM | Permalink

 With the very successful second quarter 2010 earnings, reporting season now two-thirds over, the U.S. economic data will likely dominate market sentiment this week and over the next several months until the third quarter corporate earnings “preannouncement” season begins in mid-September. This week is chock full of key data for July, beginning on Monday, August 2 with the Institute of Supply Management’s ……

We continue to adhere to our long-held forecast for modest single-digit gains for the stock market in 2010, despite the lack of any year-to-date gain. As the August recess for Congress gets underway this week, the campaigning for mid-term elections heats up. A catalyst for a late year rally could be the upcoming mid-term elections. The elections may mark a shift away from the uncertainty surrounding the potential for sweeping legislative changes. In addition, as we noted last week, given the shifting ……

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Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 10:14 AM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:47 AM | Permalink

 Over the past week, the LPL Financial Current Conditions Index was relatively unchanged at 234. The level of the CCI indicates an environment fostering solid growth in the economy and markets. We expect that the CCI may weaken in the latter half of 2010 to reflect an environment of slow growth......

www.mwboone.com/library/Current_Condition_Index_7_28_10

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:49 AM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:46 AM | Permalink

 Corporate earnings reports for the recently completed second quarter, the results of the European bank “stress tests”, and testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will dominate this week, as the economic calendar in the United States turns relatively quiet. With the Chinese ……

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 12:20 PM | Permalink

Elevated volatility has been an enduring characteristic of the markets in recent years. Friday’s sharp pullback of about -2.9% in the S&P 500 after a 7% run up in the prior nine days was a reminder that volatility remains high even on a daily basis. This is due, in part, to the ……

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www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_7_19_10

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 12:18 PM | Permalink

Despite fireworks in the markets, last week was a relatively calm one for economic data and macro events. This week, however, will see a noticeable pickup in events. Data in the U.S. this week includes reports on manufacturing for July, retail sales, consumer prices and industrial production for June, and merchandise trade ……

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Last week resulted in the biggest weekly gain for the stock market, measured by the S&P 500, in about a year. The rebound completely erased the prior week’s 5% decline. Commodities also rose. Increased risk appetite by investors was also evident in the bond market. Economically sensitive High-Yield Bonds rallied while the safe haven ……

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Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 03:14 PM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 03:13 PM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:45 AM | Permalink

 Watching the stock market lately has been like watching a very long tennis match. In the month of June, the S&P 500 has had nine up days and 10 down days ending up relatively unchanged. That is a lot of back and forth with little progress. This makes it fitting that last week’s Wimbledon first-round main draw match featuring John Isner against Nicolas Mahut lasted 11 hours over the course of ……

 Economic, monetary, and regulatory policy is likely to take center stage this week, as the economic data, soft of late, fades in importance. In addition to handicapping the outcome of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, market participants will be mulling over the decision by Chinese authorities to allow the Chinese currency, the yuan, to move ……

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:53 AM | Permalink

Back at the beginning of this quarter, we forecasted that leading indicators of economic and profit growth would be peaking during the second quarter (Weekly Market Commentary, “When Leading Indicators Peak”, April 5, 2010). We believe that the upward momentum in these measures has now peaked, including the closely followed Leading Economic Index (LEI) and the Institute for Supply Management‘s Purchasing Managers Index (ISM). (We note that the ……

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:51 AM | Permalink

Investors embraced risky asset classes such as Equities, Commodities, and High-Yield Bonds, last week, as the latest global economic data revealed few signs of any significant slowdown in economic activity related to the still-unfolding European fiscal and liquidity situation. While there were a number of key economic data reports ……

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Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:50 AM | Permalink

 With the markets’ movements in recent weeks driven almost entirely by news coming out of Europe it would seem that the European outlook must be central to the prospects for global economic and profit growth. However, evidence to the contrary was abundant last week as the stock ……

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:38 AM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:38 AM | Permalink

 Like a performer that can’t string together a series of big hits, the stock market has provided investors with big one-day moves with no follow up lately. Last week was another example of the one hit wonder stock market. On Wednesday, stocks jumped 2.6% only to be flat on Thursday and then on Friday stocks ……

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:37 AM | Permalink

The old adage of “sell in May and go away” has been repeated so many times we are still often asked if this is a sound investing strategy. We do not find sound reasoning behind this maxim. Instead, we believe investors should “buy in June and stay tuned” this year.  

We expressed caution in mid-April, given our outlook for a pullback in the stock market. However, now that the pullback that began on April 23 has occurred, we have spent most of May calming fears of another stock market plunge and, in general, we believe ……

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:21 AM | Permalink

Last week’s batch of economic data for April and May in the U.S. came in better than expected, including:
·         New and existing home sales,
·         Home prices,
·         Consumer confidence,
·         Shipments and orders for durable goods,
·         First time filings for unemployment insurance, and
·         Inflation.
 

Taken together, the data suggest that the U.S. economy continued to make a successful transition from recovery to sustainable growth as the first quarter of 2010 ended and the second quarter began. Financial markets, however, are forward looking and largely ignored last week’s data ……

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 02:29 PM | Permalink

The good news on the U.S. economy last week included the benign readings on both producer and consumer prices in April, solid news on manufacturing in April, and decent housing data for April and May. However, all of that good news was largely ignored amid the unfolding debt crisis in Europe. The bad news last week included……

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Over the past week, the LPL Financial Current Conditions Index stabilized at 216 after two weeks of declines. The decline in the index and the S&P 500 in recent weeks mirrors the short-lived pullback we saw in January. The stock market has tracked the CCI closely this year as it did last year reflecting the attention investors are paying to……

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Questions lingered last week about European economies and debt markets, including concerns as far reaching as the potential for a breakup of the Eurozone. This concern among market participants and policy makers came despite the historic $955 billion European loan guaranty package unveiled a week ago.

As a result, another very good week of U.S. economic data was overshadowed. The United States economic data continues to suggest ……

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Over the past year, the stock market has tended to rise most of the time on Mondays and fall most of the time of Fridays with little change, on average, on the days in between. Last week provided an exaggerated version of that pattern with a greater than 4% gain on Monday, followed by a generally sideways move during the middle of the week and a 2% sell-off on Friday. Despite a solid gain for the week as a whole that put an end to a two week pullback, the sharp moves during the week left many investors feeling ……

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 Volatility reigned supreme in global financial markets last week, as budget and deficit related issues led to both social unrest (rioting in Greece) and wild swings in financial markets. Lost in all this volatility was another week of very good news on the U.S. economy. The data suggested ……

 Dear Valued Investor:
On Thursday, May 6, 2010, the stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, expanded its recent pullback with a vengeance as it dropped over 3% for the day after rallying from midday declines of almost 10%. While fear was certainly the undertone for the day, the big declines and subsequent rally happened ……

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:35 AM | Permalink

Stocks fell for the first time in eight weeks as:

• Standard & Poor’s cut Greece’s credit rating to “junk” status and downgrades on Portugal and Spain last week fueling concern Europe’s debt crisis is worsening.
• Financial reform advanced to debate in the Senate, propelled by the fraud charges against Goldman Sachs and the dropping of a pre-funded bailout tax. These events fueled concern over ……

Continue reading "Watching the Calendar" »

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:27 AM | Permalink

Although there are several notable economic reports due out this week, including the first look at real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2010, market participants are likely to be focused on……

Stocks have now posted eight straight weeks of gains, measured by the broad Russell 3000 stock index. The good news on earnings and the economy helped sustain market momentum for another week. Last week, about 80% of S&P 500 companies’ earnings per share……

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The stock market, measured by the S&P 500, fell 1.6% on Friday as news that the Securities & Exchange Commission (SEC) filed fraud charges against Goldman Sachs. This news roiled financial markets, sending both stocks and commodities asset classes lower. Friday’s snapback was the most significant……

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www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_4_21_2010

Last week was a busy week for economic data and events. On balance, the mix of monetary policy messages and economic data releases left us with the same opinion of the Fed outlook, the outlook for Chinese policy, and the outlook for the United States economy that we had at the beginning of the week.

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:14 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

On the cusp of the first quarter earnings season, the markets are hovering around two milestones: Dow 11,000 and 4% on the 10-year Treasury.

Last week was relatively quiet on the economic front. The best news of the week was the unexpected surge in pending home sales in February, along with a better-than-expected reading on both chain store sales and the service sector Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index for March. The unexpected rise in first-time filings for jobless claims in early April was……

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The first quarter of 2010 was a good one for investors. The stock market, measured by the S&P 500, posted a total return of 5.4%. Small company stocks, measured by the Russell 2000 index, were up an even stronger 8.9%. Even bonds, as measured by the Barclays Aggregate Bond Index, were……

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Last week saw another solid round of U.S. economic data for February and March. Personal spending, home prices, consumer confidence, and jobless claims data all came in at or above expectations. Although they were below expectations, vehicle sales in March……

In the first quarter, the stock market followed a volatile path that looks to be on track to end with a solid gain. We believe this pattern of performance is likely to be repeated in the second quarter. Specifically, as the first quarter began the upward momentum of the fourth quarter of 2009 continued, with the S&P 500 rising……

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What We Make of the Key Reports Last Week:

Benign inflation data, improving jobless claims and the Fed dominated the economic landscape last week. The February readings on both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), should allow the Fed to keep rates lower for longer.

The overall PPI fell by 0.6% between January and February, putting the year-over-year change at 4.4%. As recently as July 2009, the PPI posted……

Over the past week, the LPL Financial Current Conditions Index remained at 2.0, in line with the highest level of the past year. The stock market has tracked the CCI closely this year as it did last year reflecting the attention investors are paying to real time measures of economic and market conditions as they assess the likelihood of a successful transition from recovery to sustainable growth. The level of the Current Conditions Index indicates……

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The major stock market averages continued their gains last week. After advancing 10% in only 26 days, the S&P 500 reached a level not seen since September of 2008. The latest leg of the rally may be nearly exhausted after posting a double-digit gain in little more than a month. However, conditions remain……

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 07:28 AM | Permalink

Last Thursday, the U.S. trade data was reported for the month of January reflecting a brief pause in an improving trend of export growth. On the same day, the stock market, measured by the S&P 500, moved up to a new 17-month high. The market reaction was fitting since export growth is a key driver of the economy and profits for S&P 500 companies. In fact, exports accounted for……

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Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 02:50 PM | Permalink

What We Make of the Key Reports Last Week:

The vast majority of last week’s U.S. economic reports support our view that the U.S economy remains on track for a sustainable recovery in 2010. The key report of the week was the better-than-expected February retail sales data, but data on jobless claims, merchandise trade, mortgage applications, consumers’ balance sheets, and business inventories also……

One year ago, on March 9, 2009, the stock market began a rally that has led to a total return of 72% for the S&P 500, through the end of last week. As we reach this anniversary it is worth taking a look back at the powerful rally that has unfolded and seek clues as to what may lie ahead……

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Over the past week, the LPL Financial Current Conditions Index held steady at 1.7. The level of the Current Conditions Index indicates an environment fostering trend-like growth in the economy and markets. We expect that the CCI may…..

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Key Reports Last Week:

The economic data last week was a mixed bag, but financial markets generally reacted well, even to the data that fell short of expectations. Many of the U.S. economic reports last week were impacted by severe weather in February, but the impact was more muted than we (and most market participants) expected. The key report of the week was the February jobs report. Bad weather kept more than……

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Groundhog Day came late in February for the stock market. Last Thursday’s worsening weekly unemployment claims data spooked stock market investors worried about job growth as February winter storms negatively impacted the data. In that labor report, the stock market saw……

Key Reports Last Week:

It was definitely a mixed bag for U.S. economic data last week, with more good news on the Business sector offset by some disturbing news on the consumer sector and the Labor Market. On balance, the market reacted well to the mix of generally weaker news, suggesting……

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below: www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_3_1_10

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 12:46 PM | Permalink

The Federal Reserve moved another step in the process of “normalizing” monetary policy last week, announcing a 25 basis point increase to the discount rate—the rate the Fed charges banks who borrow money from the Fed—after the market closed on Thursday. The move was well telegraphed, as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke mentioned ……

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:47 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

Believe it or not, 49 of the 50 states (sorry, Hawaii) had some snow on the ground on Friday, February 12, capping off a historic week for snowfall in many mid-Atlantic cities. Barring an unlikely heat wave over the final half of the month, February’s harsh weather pattern is likely to impact economic data ranging from……

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www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_2_16_10

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 04:14 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The economic data released last week was solid, but largely overlooked, as markets focused on sovereign credit risk in southern Europe. The week’s attention grabbing report, the January employment report, was……

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www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_2_08_10

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 11:02 AM | Permalink

The data released last week (and early on Monday, February 1) can be grouped into The Good, The Bad, and the Ugly. The “Good” news dominated the “Bad” and “Ugly”, suggesting that the economic data was……

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The economic data released last week was largely a sideshow, given the news on the special election in Massachusetts, financial regulation, the late -week drama surrounding the reappointment of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and policy tightening in China. The two most disturbing reports released last week were……

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:05 AM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

On balance, last week’s economic data did little to change our forecast for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Q4 2009, or our outlook for Federal Reserve policy or inflation in 2010.

This week, the economic data takes a backseat to the deluge of Q4 corporate earnings reports, as the market……

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 05:16 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

The LPL Financial Current Conditions Index rose by 0.1 to 1.5, making another new high for the year. The CCI has had a late year growth spurt over the past several weeks. The index reflects current conditions aligned with the high end of our base case outlook, established at the end of last year, for mid-teen gains in the stock market an mid-single digit gains in the bond market in 2009, as measured by the S&P 500 index and the Barclays Aggregate Index respectively. The markets have already achieved these gains. However, the CCI implies the economy and markets are on track for an outcome somewhat better than our original base case outlook for 2009.

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Current_Conditions_Index_12_23_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:13 AM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 01:03 PM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:40 AM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 04:44 PM | Permalink

The end of the year is a good time to think about how you'll handle your financial investments, but it's also a good time to consider how you'll handle your number one investment — you.

With the stresses of work and other responsibilities, people often forget about treating themselves well, but the notion of investing in you goes beyond giving yourself a little time off or a treat at the mall. If you've ever wondered if your job could be better, if you could be earning more money, or if you simply could be happier, it makes sense to develop a plan to get there.

Here are first steps in creating a self-investment plan:

Continue reading "7 Steps to Create a Self-investment Plan" »

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 02:56 PM | Permalink

Last Week's busy slate of economic data and events supported our view that the U.S. economy will post a 3.0 to 3.5% growth rate (as measured by real Gross Domestic Product) in Q4 2009, and that growth will continue at or above that pace over the first part of 2010. There were certainly some disappointing data points last week, among them:

* The below 50 reading on the Institute of Supply Managment's service sector index for November.
* The weaker than expected chain store sales data for November.
* A further drop in consumer confidence in early December.
* The sharp downward revisions to construction activity in August and September suggest that Q3 GDP will be revised down further.

However, there was better than expected news last week.........

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_12_7_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 01:25 PM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:55 AM | Permalink

The LPL Financial Research Current Condition Index (CCI) is an objective and transparent measure of how the conditions are evolving relative to our base case, bear, and bull cases defined in our Outlook 2009 publication. This weekly index is not intended to be a leading index or predictive of where conditions are headed, but merely a coincident measure of where they are right now. We want to track the conditions in real time to aid investment decision making. There are thousands of indicators-some lead the economy, some lag, while others merely offer a lot of statistical noise. We chose to create our own index tailored to the current environment to provide the clearest and most useful way to track how conditions are aligned with the expectations embedded in our investment recommendations.

To view the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Current_Conditions_Index_12_2_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:04 AM | Permalink

If you don't have an estate plan in place, a will, a trust, a health care proxy and the like, now — regardless of your age or life stage — would be a good time to put your affairs in order. But if you already have an estate plan in place, do you know when you should be updating it?

Here are 12 things to consider:

Continue reading "Protect Your Legacy. Update Your Estate Plan" »

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 12:41 PM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 10:35 AM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 01:19 PM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 11:42 AM | Permalink

Last week's rather sparse U.S. economic data calendar highlighted two fundamental factors that are driving the U.S. dollar lower: the twin trade and budget deficits. While a weak report on consumer sentiment in early November was worrisome, data on jobless claims, banks' willingness to lend, another set of robust economic data from China, and the weaker dollar were enough to keep the eight month, 65% rally in the U.S. equity markets on track.

In sharp contrast to last week's data calendar, this week's is chock full of data. Among the reports due out are:

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_11_16_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 11:06 AM | Permalink

With many market participants fretting about the sustainability of the economic recovery, we thought that last week's slate of economic data would have to "run the table" in order for the equity market to break the slump it had been in mid-October. For the most part, the data released last week did "run the table", with the vast majority of reports coming in at or above expectations. The market also benefited from another "friendly" FOMC statement, in which Federal Reserve (Fed) policy makers upgraded their assesment of the economy, but again promised to keep rates low "for an extended period". Equity markets responded positively to the preponderance of good news, as the S&P 500 posted a healthy 3.2% gain in the week, the first weekly gain since mid October.

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_11_9_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 02:17 PM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:55 AM | Permalink

Back in the summer months of May, June, and July, the stock market, measured by the S&P 500, remained in a range around 900 after investors moved from pricing in another great depression to a typical recession. Now, this fall, the S&P 500 has been in a range around 1050 as investors have moved from pricing in a typical recession to a recovery. The recent pattern of performance of the S&P 500 is remarkably similar to what place during the early summer months.

The nearby chart of the S&P 500 compares this summer's performance (from Aprll 22 through July 31) and the pattern this fall (from September 1 to now). They are nearly a perfect match, with the fall being exactly 150 points higher on the index than during summer. What this suggests is that recent slide may not be the end of the pullback either. An eventual move down of a few more percentage points in the next few weeks may unfold if ....

To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_11_2_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 09:27 AM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:40 AM | Permalink

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Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:48 AM | Permalink

After crossing the 10,000 for the first time in a year, the Dow finished the week just below that threshold - but up for the second straight week, gaining 1.3%. The S&P 500 added a similar 1.5% on the week, up 61% since early March but still off 31% from the October 2007 peak.

The stocks market gain was solid, but clearly reflects lofty expectations for earnings since a record-breaking 79% of the 61 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 that have reported third-quarter earnings so far managed to beat analysts' profit projections. Based on last week's reception, companies appear to have to present revenue growth combined with much better than earnings expected results to generate anything more than a yawn from the stock market - which appears to be nearly saturated with good news.

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_10_19_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 11:25 AM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 07:44 AM | Permalink

Our mission is to offer the best advice, tools, and resources available to help you meet your financial goals. Guided by three tenets, performance, service, and transparency, the team is committed to delivering to all three through conflict free, actionable manager guidance, effective assett allocation positioning, timely economic and market perspectives, and visibility into our process.

Please click on the link below to view the rest of this article:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/LPL_Advancing_Your_Perspective.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 08:47 AM | Permalink

Last week's 5% stock market rally, as measured by the S&P 500, was driven primarily by a positive start to the third quarter earnings season. While we cautioned last week about drawing conclusions on third quarter results too early, we can't help but note that a number of companies gave us just what we were looking for by posting better than expected sequential revenue growth and a high 74% of companies are beating expectations.

We had expected a renewed rally to begin last week after stocks have been in a range of 1025 to 1075 on the S&P 500 for the past month. We raised our recommended stock weighting just prior to last week as the earnings reporting season was about to get underway. During the past two quarters, the stock market moved sideways in the two weeks prior to the start of the earnings season then rallied as the reports came in. This pattern appears to be unfolding again this season.
To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_10_12_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 07:37 AM | Permalink

The data this past week was sparse, but the data that was released was generally above expectations, including the:

* Service sector ISM report for September

* Jobless claims for the week ending September 26

* Chain store sales for September

* September trade balance

In addition, we saw a spike in mortgage applications in early October and a better than expected reading on the nation's trade deficit in September. Financial markets reacted accordingly, with the S&P 500 rising 4.5% in the week, while the yield on the 10 year Treasury note rose nearly 20 basis points, to 3.38%, from under 3.2% a week earlier.

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Commentary_10_12_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 07:28 AM | Permalink

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 02:52 PM | Permalink

The weak September jobs report, released on Friday, October 2, brought a disappointing month of economic data to a close. In June, July, and August, about 70% of the economic data came in above expectations. In September and early October however, the vast majority of economic releases were below (raised) expectations. As noted above, the much anticipated September jobs report also came in below expectations, and there were few “silver linings” in the report. (see below for details). Our key take away from the September jobs report is that the steady improvement in the labor market (from horrendous, to horrible, to awful, to bad) over the last eight months seems to have stalled out at “bad” in September. This calls into question our forecast that the economy will begin to generate job growth by year end. It does not, however, alter our overall views on the economy, inflation or the Fed.

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

http://www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_10_5_09.pdf

Posted by MWBoone & Associates at 11:43 AM | Permalink