Last week’s economic data, including the better than expected May employment report, confirmed that the U.S. economy was still on track for our base case as outlined in our 2009 Outlook publication. At the margin, the better than expected May nonfarm payroll report suggests that growth in the economy as measured by real gross domestic product (GDP) could resume by as soon as the third quarter of 2009. However, for now we are sticking with our base case which calls for a flat reading on real GDP in Q3 and a resumption of growth in Q4 2009. We will continue to monitor the incoming data closely.
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