Last week’s economic calendar was chock full of data, and the data continued to confirm that the most severe economic downturn since the Great Depression was on the cusp of ending as Q2 2009 ended and Q3 2009 began. This week, it’s another busy week for data, dominated by the employment data for July due out at the end of the week. As was the case last week, this week’s data set will allow market participants to continue to assess the exact timing, and more importantly, the pace, composition and sustainability of the economic recovery.

Although the U.S. economy contracted by 1.0% in Q2 2009 versus Q1 2009, the pace of decline was much less severe than in prior quarters. Inventory destocking accounted for most of the decline in GDP in Q2. Outside the massive drawdown in inventories, the economy only contracted by 0.2% in…

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