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Monthly Archives: August 2010

It Has Been a Long, Cold Summer?

 The week before the Labor Day holiday is traditionally a slow week for financial markets, which is not likely to be the case this week, as there are plenty of key reports on the economy for July and August to keep market participants’ minds off their vacations. Markets are still buzzing about what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke did or did not say at a speech in Wyoming on Friday, August 27, and while ……

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www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_8_30_10

Economic Soft Spot May Soon Firm Up

 If history is any guide, the disappointingly soft economic data over the past few months may soon begin to firm.
Looking back over the past 60 years, about one year after the start of every recovery a soft spot emerges. These soft spots were not signs that the recovery was going to fail. In fact, in every case the recovery was successful and a multi-……

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www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_8_23_10

The Great Debate Continues

Amid persistent market concern about a double-dip recession in the United States, the economic calendar this week, though light, will provide plenty of opportunity for debate. Data for July and August on manufacturing, housing, producer prices and leading indicators are due out this week. None of the reports, however, is likely to be the silver bullet that puts the double-dip debate to rest. It is a relatively quiet week for ……

 

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www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_8_16_10

Missed Opportunity

 This year has been defined by three growth scares. In the first quarter, the markets were focused on a slowdown in China, in the second quarter the concern moved to a slowdown in Europe, and in the third quarter the growth scare has shifted to the United States. In each of the prior quarters, the concern peaked at the midpoint of ……

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www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_8_16_10

Uncertain Fed Means Certain Outcome

 In his recent testimony to Congress, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke used the phrase “unusually uncertain” to describe the U.S. economic outlook. The word uncertain was used five times in the statement released at the conclusion of the June 23 meeting, and was used 16 times in the minutes released on July 28. We may see more of the word “uncertain” this week ……

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www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_8_9_10

Will They, or Won’t They?

The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy making arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets this week amid increased market chatter about deflation (or falling prices) and calls for more monetary policy stimulus. The U.S. economic data calendar gets off to a slow start this week, but by the end of the week, the market will know more about the inflation/deflation debate, merchandise trade, retail sales, and small business……

 

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www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_8_9_10

 

July Economic Data Takes Center Stage

 With the very successful second quarter 2010 earnings, reporting season now two-thirds over, the U.S. economic data will likely dominate market sentiment this week and over the next several months until the third quarter corporate earnings “preannouncement” season begins in mid-September. This week is chock full of key data for July, beginning on Monday, August 2 with the Institute of Supply Management’s ……

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www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Economic_Commentary_8_3_10

Mid-Term Market Moves

We continue to adhere to our long-held forecast for modest single-digit gains for the stock market in 2010, despite the lack of any year-to-date gain. As the August recess for Congress gets underway this week, the campaigning for mid-term elections heats up. A catalyst for a late year rally could be the upcoming mid-term elections. The elections may mark a shift away from the uncertainty surrounding the potential for sweeping legislative changes. In addition, as we noted last week, given the shifting ……

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www.mwboone.com/library/Weekly_Market_Commentary_8_2_10