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Monthly Archives: September 2013

Communication Breakdown?

Financial market participants had since come to expect that the Fed would begin to taper this month, absent a major downshift in the economy. Our view was that if the Fed did not follow through on tapering, it risked losing the market’s hard-earned trust, and any trust the markets have in the Fed today will likely come in handy when the Fed has to begin removing stimulus and raising rates in the years ahead…..

Communication Breakdown?

Dawning of a New Era?

Financial markets have reacted favorably to the news that Summers is no longer a candidate for several reasons: Most importantly, Yellen is more likely to continue the same policy path as Bernanke, and markets are embracing the certainty, even as the uncertainty around the Fed’s quantitative easing (QE) program ramps up…..

Dawning of a New Era?

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Data shows that the economy is not booming, the labor market is still struggling, and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation has decelerated in recent months. All this suggests that although there is not a clear cut economic case for the Fed to begin slowing QE at the Septemeber 17-18 FOMC meeting, the overall economy…

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Stocks Likely to Focus on Domestic Over Foreign Policy in September

The markets were most focused on an impending military strike on Syria last week. While prospects for an imminent strike have faded, the likelihood of military action in the near future remains. Unfrotunately, the past offers us many periods of military actions. Looking back at these can help us draw parallels and gain perspective on the most likely outcome for the markets….

Pre-Strike Stock Market Rallies

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The upward revision to second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) garnered a great deal of market attention last week (August 26-30, 2013). The report, released on Thursday August 29, revealed that second quarter GDP – initially reported in late July 2013 as a 1.7% gain…

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