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Monthly Archives: October 2013

Will the Fed announce tapering at this week’s FOMC meeting?

The Fed is unlikely to announce that it is ready to begin scaling back/tapering its bond-purchase program, known as quantitative easing (QE), at this week’s meeting. The Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold its seventh (of eight) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings this year on Tuesday and Wednesday…


The Lowdown on the Shutdown: The Impact on the Economy and Federal Reserve

With the shutdown and debt ceiling debate now in the rear view mirror, the market’s attention– and possibly the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) as well– will likely shift to the┬áperformance of the private sector economy here in the fourth quarter of 2013 and in the first quarter of 2014. We continue to expect…

The Lowdown on the Shutdown

The Six Trends to Watch This Earnings Season

The continued wrangling by lawmakers over the government shutdown and debt ceiling may overshadow earnings reports this week in drama, but not in importance. While Washington drives market volatility, the market trend is determined by earnings growth…..

The Six Trends to Watch This Earnings Season


What does the government shutdown mean today?

The failure in Washington is disappointing, if not a surprise. However, history tells us it is not necessarily a bad thing for investors. The 16 government shutdowns over the past 37 years, which have ranged from one to 21 days, have not been particularly negative for stock market investors, averaging only 2% decline for the S&P 500. More importantly, from a longer-term perspective, they preceded above-average returns. The S&P 500 Index has risen…

How we ought to think about the government shutdown

Many Happy Returns

The phrase “many happy returns” is often used for a birthday greeting and meant to augur a long, successful life. More broadly, the term can be used as a greeting to offer hope that a festive event would repeat many mort time in the future. The current bond market environment can hardly be described as festive, but the month of September has bond investors exclaiming…

Bond Market Perspectives