Greece’s critical referendum took place this weekend and the Greek people resoundingly voted “no” — rejecting the latest bailout deal from creditors. The referedum result, which some interpreted as a vote to exit the Eurozone, throws Greece’s future in the currency union firmly in doubt. The unexpected result has led to a roughly 2% decline in the broad European indexes but only a modest decline in the S&P 500 (as of 3 p.m. ET today, July 6, 2015). The negative market reaction in Europe is not surprising, given polls heading into the weekend suggested a vote for the bailout was more likely. The modest decline in the U.S. may suggest markets are increasingly comfortable with the situation. Here we try to answer the following questions:
1. Would a Greece exit (Grexit) from the Eurozone lead to contagion for global markets?
2. Will this latest Greece crisis result in a Lehman moment?
3. Is a deal that keeps Greece in the Eurozone still even possible
4. Does anticipated weakness in European equity markets present a buying opportunity?
We address these questions here and provide our playbook for investing in this environment.