The market continues to expect that global gross domestic product (GDP) growth will accelerate in 2015 (3.0%), 2016 (3.4%), and 2017 (3.4%) from 2014’s 2.0% pace, aided by lower oil prices and stimulus from two of the three leading central banks in the world. The prospect for another year of decelerating growth in emerging markets remains a concern for some investors, who may stillbe waiting (in vain) for China to post 10 – 12% growth rates as it consistently did during the early to mid-2000s. The likelihood of rate hikes in the U.S. in late 2015 and the U.K. in early 2016 is also a potential growth headwind. Still, much stimulus remains in the system, and more is likely from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the European Central Bank (ECB), which may help bolster growth prospects in two key areas of the globe. Although China is unlikely to embark on quantitative easing (QE), Chinese authorities have recently enacted a series of targeted fiscal, monetary, and administrative actions aimed at stabilizing China’s economy in 2015 and beyond; more such actions may follow, but fears of a hard landing in China persist.

Gauging Global Growth