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Monthly Archives: November 2015

Does Black Friday Still Matter?

The day after Thanksgiving, also known as Black Friday, seems to receive more media hype each year, as it is the unofficial kick off of the holiday season. Markets also pay attention, as Black Friday has historically been an early indicator of consumer demand during the important holiday shopping season. But Black Friday sales estimates have fallen for the past two years, leading to the question, is the weekend after Thanksgiving as impactful as it was in the past? And, should investors be worried?

The Black Friday weekend has been a draw for consumers since the 1950s, but media coverage has picked up steam in recent years, with people braving cold weather, long lines, and short tempers to find the best deals. Contrary to popular headlines discussing the frenzied madness, sales estimates for the Black Friday weekend have actually decreased over the past couple of years. Does this mean that Black Friday shopping is becoming less relevant for consumers?

One driver of lower Black Friday sales relative to history is the wider usage of internet retailers. Online sales have increased over the past decade, so much so that they earned their own discount day — Cyber Monday. This term was originally coined in 2005 when everyone returned to work the Monday after Thanksgiving. Corporate networks used to have much higher speeds than the typical home, and employees still in the Black Friday mindset would go into work and do their holiday shopping online. With broadband internet access widely available now, online sales are no longer dependent on Cyber Monday, though the propensity for online retailers to offer special deals on the day means it continues to be relevant.

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Despite lowered expectations, some high-profile “misses” have occurred on global gross domestic product (GDP) readings for Q3 2015, causing concern for some market participants. The United States (23% of global GDP), China (13%), the United Kingdom (4%), South Korea (2%), Indonesia (1%), and Singapore (less than 1%) have reported Q3 gross domestic product (GDP). Together, those countries account for nearly 45% of global GDP. Third quarter 2015 GDP in three of the six nations beat or matched consensus expectations (China, South Korea, and Singapore), and three of the six countries reported results that either were in-line with or accelerated versus the prior period (South Korea, Indonesia, and Singapore). As a reminder, two-thirds of Q2 GDP reports beat or met expectations, while a similar percentage accelerated from Q1 2015 results; thus, the Q3 GDP results to date are lagging, relative to even lowered expectations. Still, with 55% of global GDP yet to report Q3 2015 results, the reporting season still has not reached the halfway point.

This week (November 8 – 15, 2015), another six countries are scheduled to report Q3 GDP, including the Eurozone (24% of global GDP), Japan (6%), Russia (2%), Poland (1%), Thailand (less than 1%), and Malaysia (less than 1%). Together, these nations — a nice mix of both developed (Eurozone and Japan) and emerging markets (Russia, Thailand, Poland, and Malaysia) — account for 34% of global GDP. Therefore, by the end of the week, countries representing nearly 80% of global GDP will have reported Q3 data. Over the second half of November and the first half of December 2015, another 15 – 20% of global GDP will report on Q3, including (ranked in order of size of economy) Brazil, India, Canada, Australia, Mexico, and Turkey, along with Switzerland, Sweden, Argentina, Norway, South Africa, Denmark, and the Philippines, again providing further insight into both developed and emerging market economies in the third quarter.

Global GDP Tracker: Fall 2015 Edition