This week’s commentary features content from LPL Research’s Outlook 2016: Embrace the Routine. Gains in 2016 may require tolerance for volatility. Stocks historically have offered a tradeoff of higher return for higher risk, the gain of more upside than high-quality bonds versus the pain of market volatility and losses. For the last few years, U.S. stock markets provided below-average pain, while still providing strong returns. Between October 2011 and July 2015, the S&P 500 Index went nearly four years without a “correction” of more than 10%, while climbing an average of 20% a year. Although we expect average returns for stocks in 2016, the path to reach them will be anything but routine. LPL Research expects stocks to produce mid-singledigit returns for the S&P 500, consistent with historical mid-to-late economic cycle performance, driven by mid- to high-single-digit earnings and a largely stable price-to-earnings ratio (PE). This return to a more normal market may mean more volatility, challenging investors’ ability to stay focused on their goals.


In 2016, we expect the macroeconomic environment to be molded by a midto-late cycle U.S. economy, modest inflation, and the start of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike campaign. If the U.S. does not enter recession in a given year, the probability of an S&P 500 gain is 82%, based on historical data from 1950 to present. Heading into 2016, there have been scant signs of excesses in the U.S…

To Continue Reading Click Here