Our analysis of 2016 “surprises” discusses lower-probability, but high-impact events that may unfold over the course of 2016. While no one can predict the future, the surest way to build a surprise-resistant investment plan is to take the time to consider all potential outcomes. Thinking through all possibilities, even those that may not be the most probable, can help investors understand how different scenarios may play out, and allow them to see the warning signs that may indicate a shift is ahead. With this in mind, we explore potential surprises that could impact markets in 2016…

The long anticipated sustained rise in interest rates has failed to materialize over the past several years. Is 2016 the year? Market-based estimates of future interest rates are low, but a pickup in inflation, better economic data, or both could easily lift those expectations and bond yields along with them….

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