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Monthly Archives: May 2016


The one-year anniversary of the S&P 500’s all-time high took place on May 21, 2016. Stocks have largely been spinning their wheels for the past year. The S&P 500 has failed to return to its May 21, 2015, record high for 12 months. Stocks have actually been spinning their wheels for even longer, considering the S&P 500 is at the same level as it was on November 18, 2014 — an 18-month stretch. This week we take a look at what the stock market’s lackluster performance since the last record high might mean for the current bull market, now the second longest since 1950.

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Our analysis of earnings conference call transcripts for the first quarter earnings period provides a mixed picture. The good news is that economic fears and drags from oil and the dollar are abating and earnings are almost certainly putting in a growth trough. However, conference call transcripts do not suggest sentiment is improving much, and management commentary is consistent with a continued slow growth environment. All of this casts some doubt regarding the strength of a potential second half earnings rebound.

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