Our Blog


Quality Independent, Unbiased, Financial Advice and Wealth Management

-Family Owned Since 1985

 
 
 
 

Monthly Archives: September 2016

Five Forecasters: Few Warning Signs

The Five Forecasters favor the continuation of the current economic expansion and bull market. The Five Forecasters are five indicators that, collectively, have historically signaled increasing fragility of the U.S. economy and a transition to the late stage of the economic cycle, with increased potential of an oncoming recession. Although bear markets (defined as a 20% or more drop in the stock market) are not always accompanied by recessions, more often than not they come together. As a result, we believe these indicators can be used to give some advance warning of a bear market.

To continue reading, click here.

Corporate Beige Book: Q2 Offers Few Signs of Improvement

Corporate sentiment improved little based on our analysis of earnings conference call transcripts for second quarter earnings season. The message from our earnings recap commentary three weeks ago, “We Were Hoping for More,” is also appropriate for our latest Corporate Beige Book. We did see some signs of improvement in managements’ tone based on the use of more strong words. Talk of recession was virtually non-existent in the U.S., and the Brexit vote in the U.K. was generally not as disruptive as some may have feared. However, the ratio of strong words to weak ones suggests only tentative improvement, while foreign currency remained a drag and low oil prices are still in focus…

To continue reading, click here.