Financial To Do List: Medicare Part D Open Enrollment
If you are over 65 and enrolled in Medicare, or if your parents (or grandparents) are over 65 and enrolled in Medicare, check on coverage for prescription drugs and make any changes during the Medicare Part D open enrollment period, November 15-December 31, 2007. (NOTE: if you are over 65, enrolled in Medicare, AND have prescription drug coverage through a Medicare Advantage plan OR are receiving prescription drug coverage through an employer sponsored retiree health plan, enrolling in Part D may cancel some of your insurance coverage and generally should NOT be done without consulting your current insurance plan.)
Stock Market Observations: Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratios — Check Your Numbers
It is commonly accepted that the P/E (Price Earnings Ratio) is a key metric in evaluating the not only individual stocks but the valuation of the stock market as a whole.
P/E ratios for the US stock market are generally understood to reflect fair valuation when they range between 14 and 20. Exactly where depends on many factors including interest rates and whether looking at current year, trailing 12-month or forward twelve months.
The Dismal Science — Economics: Black Swans and the Mortgage Crisis fine’
“A single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. All you need is a single black [one].
” From “The Black Swan”
By Nassim Taleb (2007)
The mortgage crisis meets the description of a “black swan”. Recently, the Wall Street Journal published a description of how one trader (Mr. John Paulson) was able to profit handsomely from betting on this “black swan”. (January 15, 2008, Trader Made Billions on Subprime). How handsomely? Profits of $15 billion in 2007, nearly equal to Citigroup write-offs reported in their December 31 quarterly earnings announcement.
The Dismal Science — Economics: Black Swans and the Mortgage Crisis Redux
"A single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. All you need is a single black [one].”
From “The Black Swan”
By Nassim Taleb (2007)
Previously, I posed an observation that the current “mortgage crisis” is a “Black Swan”. If that is so, if one knew in advance that a “Black Swan” was present, what actions could reasonably be taken?
The Dismal Science — Economics:Black Swans and the Mortgage Crisis
“A single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. All you need is a single black [one].”
From “The Black Swan”
By Nassim Taleb (2007)
Mr. Taleb’s book focuses on being fooled by randomness, a concept more recently referred to as [sic] ..separating signal from noise. A timely question would be ‘ Is the current crisis in banking and mortgages a “black swan”?
Financial To Do List: Medicare Part D election
If you are over 65 and enrolled in Medicare, or if your parents (or grandparents) are over 65 and enrolled in Medicare, check on coverage for prescription drugs and make any changes during the Medicare Part D open enrollment period, November 15-December 31, 2007.