Our Blog


Quality Independent, Unbiased, Financial Advice and Wealth Management

-Family Owned Since 1985

 
 
 
 

Category Archives: Economy and Markets

When Will the Selling Stop?

The past week brought about the summer solstice, the official start of summer, but for bond investors it feels more like the dead of winter. Bond weakness continued in response to a Federal Reserve (Fed) that remains fixated on slowing, or tapering, bond purchases following last week’s policy meeting…

To see the rest of the article, please click the link below:

When Will the Selling Stop?

The End Is Near — But That Is Good News

Market participants reacted as if The End is coming last week. But they may have missed the fact that this may be good news. After a wild week of volatility, the S&P 500 has experienced a peak-to-trough 4.85% dip since the all-time high on May 21 (4.6% after Friday’s modest rebound). We have noted in recent commentaries how unusually long the S&P 500 has gone without a 5% or more pullback. In fact, if the S&P 500 did avoid a 5% decline in the first half of this year, it would have been the first year in 16 to do so…

To see the rest of the article, please click the link below:

The End Is Near — But That Is Good News

What’s It Worth?

What has mattered most to the market in recent years? What has explained the ups and downs and how the market got back to all-time highs? There are a lot of drivers that could be argued as critical components of the markets’ rise, such as the European fiscal issues, the housing rebound, and U.S. fiscal policy developments. But, setting emotion and headlines aside and measuring statistically, there are three things that have really mattered to the markets…

To see the rest of the article, please click the link below:

What’s It Worth?

Sizzling Summer Fed FAQ

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds its fourth (of eight this year) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday, June 18 – 19. The meeting will be followed by an FOMC statement, and the FOMC’s latest economic and Fed funds projections…

To see the rest of the article, please click the link below:

Sizzling Summer Fed FAQ

The Yield Rally Continues

In a previous life as a bond trader, my colleagues and I would try to find solace amid bond market sell-offs by focusing on the rise in yields as a potential opportunity going forward. The “yield rally” as we described it, was a half-hearted attempt to find something positive and provide a lift during discouraging bond market declines. But recent bond market weakness is no laughing matter, and as we discussed last week, May 2013 was one of the worst monthly performances for high-quality bonds over the past 10 years…

To see the rest of the article, please click the link below:

The Yield Rally Continues

The Butterfly Effect

Summer gets underway with a lot of beating wings as millions of butterflies travel home. This week, many northern states are seeing their first Monarch butterfly of the season. Monarchs migrate from their winter home in Mexico to summer homes across the United States.

The “butterfly effect” is a term from a pioneer of chaos theory, Edward Lorenz; his 1972 presentation Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas? describes the idea that a tiny event can start a chain reaction and have large and wide-reaching effects…

To see the rest of the article, please click the link below:

The Butterfly Effect

Miserable May

All eyes are on this week’s release of the monthly employment report (on Friday, June 7, 2013), as high-quality bonds concluded one of their worst monthly performances of the past 10 years. The broad Barclays Aggregate Bond Index declined 1.8% in May 2013, the worst monthly performance since December 2009, which in turn is the weakest since October 2008…

To see the rest of the article, please click the link below:

Miserable May

Real and Sustainable

The U.S. Department of Labor’s monthly employment report always generates plenty of attention from the media, Main Street, and the markets — and this week will be no exception. The May 2013 report scheduled for release on Friday, June 7, is expected to show that the economy added a net new 165,000 jobs in May 2013, (the same number of net new jobs created in April 2013) and that the nation’s unemployment rate held steady at 7.5% in May 2013. (See “Closer Look: Labor Market Surveys” on page 5). This week’s report is of particular interest, given the rumblings from the Federal Reserve (Fed) on potentially scaling back, or tapering…

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

Real and Sustainable

Love-Hate Relationship Between Bond Yields and Stock Prices

Stock prices and bond yields have historically had a love-hate relationship that would make the romantic ups and downs of any soap opera seem mild by comparison. But, currently, the relationship between them remains tight and far from crossing the line that would lead to a breakup. With the 10-year Treasury yield rising a half of a percentage point last month, investors are beginning to wonder when rising interest rates may start to negatively affect stock prices. Higher yields can slow…

To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

Love-Hate Relationship Between Bond Yields and Stock Prices

Summer Rentals

Memorial Day weekend kicks off the summer season in sunny destinations across the country as city dwellers and others seek to escape the heat and enjoy some natural beauty and relaxation. But like unwanted guests crowding a cabin or a cottage, a lot of unwelcome events that impact the markets can really ruin a summer vacation. So far, however, the calendar for investors appears…

 To see the rest of the article, please click on the link below:

Summer Rentals