Our Blog


Quality Independent, Unbiased, Financial Advice and Wealth Management

-Family Owned Since 1985

 
 
 
 

Category Archives: Weekly Market Commentary

Five Forecasters: Few Warning Signs

The Five Forecasters favor the continuation of the current economic expansion and bull market. The Five Forecasters are five indicators that, collectively, have historically signaled increasing fragility of the U.S. economy and a transition to the late stage of the economic cycle, with increased potential of an oncoming recession. Although bear markets (defined as a 20% or more drop in the stock market) are not always accompanied by recessions, more often than not they come together. As a result, we believe these indicators can be used to give some advance warning of a bear market.

To continue reading, click here.

Stocks Likely to Focus on Domestic Over Foreign Policy in September

The markets were most focused on an impending military strike on Syria last week. While prospects for an imminent strike have faded, the likelihood of military action in the near future remains. Unfrotunately, the past offers us many periods of military actions. Looking back at these can help us draw parallels and gain perspective on the most likely outcome for the markets….

Pre-Strike Stock Market Rallies

Change in China and What it Means for Investors

Last week’s economic reports from China for July added fuel to the fiery debate over whether China’s economy is slowing rapidly, possibly forming a sharp “hard landing,” or slowing more gradually and likely forming a more shallow dip or “soft landing,” which could already be stabilizing. This debate focuses primarily on the pace of the decline and all sides assume an eventual rebound. However, the debate misses the point…

To see the rest of the article, please click the link below:

Change in China and What it Means for Investors

Summer of Love

It has been a summer of love for the stock market. As the temperatures heated up, so did the stock market. From June 24 to August 2, 2013, the S&P 500 Index rose 9%, pushing stocks up about 20% for the year. The last time we saw stocks perform the way they have this year in both pattern and magnitude was…

To see the rest of the article, please click the link below:

Summer of Love

Under the Surface

Stocks in Europe have bounced about 9.7%, measured by the performance of the MSCI Europe Index in dollars, from their low point of a little over a month ago. This is ahead of the gain of 7.5% in the U.S. stocks in the S&P 500 Index over the same period. Several recent surveys and economic data points appear to have renewed a sense of optimism over Europe’s economic future and lifted European stocks. Last week, four of these grabbed investors’ attention…

To see the rest of the article, please click the link below:

Under the Surface

The Right Recipe for Stocks

The summer means cookouts. The recipe for success is usually simple: take a basic ingredient, add some characteristic flavors, and apply some heat. The recipe for stock market investing success may be as simple as taking the S&P 500 and adding the characteristics provided by buybacks as the market heats up in the second half of the year. Some characteristics to consider for a good core U.S. stock portfolio for the second half include…

To see the rest of the article, please click the link below:

The Right Recipe for Stocks

Mid-Year Outlook

The investment landscape for the first half of 2013 has proven to be a tough one to navigate. And this is likely to continue through the second half of this year. There is a lot of rocky terrain and potentially some surprises ahead that investors need to prepare for. The performance of the markets is likely to converge in the second half of the year on a path that likely holds…

To see the rest of the article, please click the link below:

Mid-Year Outlook

The End Is Near — But That Is Good News

Market participants reacted as if The End is coming last week. But they may have missed the fact that this may be good news. After a wild week of volatility, the S&P 500 has experienced a peak-to-trough 4.85% dip since the all-time high on May 21 (4.6% after Friday’s modest rebound). We have noted in recent commentaries how unusually long the S&P 500 has gone without a 5% or more pullback. In fact, if the S&P 500 did avoid a 5% decline in the first half of this year, it would have been the first year in 16 to do so…

To see the rest of the article, please click the link below:

The End Is Near — But That Is Good News

What’s It Worth?

What has mattered most to the market in recent years? What has explained the ups and downs and how the market got back to all-time highs? There are a lot of drivers that could be argued as critical components of the markets’ rise, such as the European fiscal issues, the housing rebound, and U.S. fiscal policy developments. But, setting emotion and headlines aside and measuring statistically, there are three things that have really mattered to the markets…

To see the rest of the article, please click the link below:

What’s It Worth?

The Butterfly Effect

Summer gets underway with a lot of beating wings as millions of butterflies travel home. This week, many northern states are seeing their first Monarch butterfly of the season. Monarchs migrate from their winter home in Mexico to summer homes across the United States.

The “butterfly effect” is a term from a pioneer of chaos theory, Edward Lorenz; his 1972 presentation Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly’s Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas? describes the idea that a tiny event can start a chain reaction and have large and wide-reaching effects…

To see the rest of the article, please click the link below:

The Butterfly Effect