Lessons From the Labor Market
More than four million children were born in the United States in 1990, the most in any year since the tail end of the baby boom in 1961. Twenty-two years later, in 2012, more than 1.8 million will earn a bachelor’s degree and either enter the workforce or move on to more schooling (graduate school). In addition, approximately 3.2 million students, most born in 1994, will graduate from high school this spring, and face the same choices as college grads…
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License to Spend
In our 2012 Outlook we wrote, “U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is likely to produce below-average growth of about 2% in 2012, supported by solid business spending and modest, but stable, consumer spending” and that U.S. business spending would grow at several times the pace of consumer spending in 2012. With data on GDP now in hand…
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New Paradigm in Global Growth
For the third year in a row, as April turns into May, global financial markets are growing concerned over a slowdown in global economic activity. From a U.S. perspective, we continue to monitor several key metrics…
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Most Asked Fed Question May Go Unanswered
This week marks the first anniversary of the latest round of increased transparency by the Federal Reserve (Fed) as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will kick off a second year of post-Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting press conferences on Wednesday, April 25. Bernanke’s first post-FOMC press conference was held on April 27, 2011. Bernanke also held press conferences after the FOMC meetings that ended on June 22, 2011, November 2, 2011, and January 25, 2012. While the media is likely…
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Beige Book Shows Modest Growth
The Beige Book compiles qualitative observations made by community bankers and business owners about economic (labor market, prices, wages, housing, nonresidential construction, tourism, manufacturing) and banking (loan demand, loan quality, lending conditions) conditions in each of the 12 Federal Reserve (Fed) districts…
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Jobs Looking for People
A number of key reports due out this week will tell market participants how many jobs were added in March 2012, in what industries the jobs were added, how much workers were paid, and why workers were unemployed. If the consensus is correct, the private sector economy will add more than 200,000 jobs for the fourth consecutive month, and the nation’s unemployment rate will stay at 8.3%. Each month, financial markets and the media turn the monthly jobs report into the most…
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The Long Road Home
This week brings a mix of policy and data, but the Supreme Court’s consideration of the Affordable Care Act will likely draw most of the media’s attention. This week’s U.S. economic data is a mix of data on…
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Warmer Weather to the Rescue?
Housing is the dominant theme on this week’s economic and policy calendar. Reports on homebuilder sentiment for March as well as housing starts, building permits, new home sales and existing home sales for February will compete for the market’s attention this week. Much warmer – than – usual weather during the first two months of 2012 will likely boost housing- related data. Outside of housing…
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To QE or not to QE?
The Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) policymaking arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) highlights this week’s relative busy mid-month economic and policy calendar. We take a closer look at Fed policy in this week’s publication. Elsewhere, after larger-than-expected rate cuts last week by central banks in Brazil and India, rate setting meetings are scheduled this week in Mexico, Norway, Switzerland and Japan…
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Unemployment Improving, but Still Uncomfortably High
This week is extraordinarily busy for economic reports and potentially market-moving events in the United States and abroad. On the domestic economic front, the February Institute for Supply Management (ISM) report highlights a week that will also include the release of February vehicle sales data, January personal income and spending, and the second look at the fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. Fed policy will also…
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