The “Wall Street” Election Poll
The biggest event for investors over the next six months is likely to be the November elections in the United States. The outcome of the elections will define the political context and leadership for policies that address the looming fiscal imbalances coming to a head in early 2013…
To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:
Spring Slide Indicators Update
One month ago we provided our list of the 10 indicators to watch that seemed to precede the stock market declines in 2010 and 2011 and may warn of another spring slide. In both 2010 and 2011 an early run-up in the stock market, similar to this year, pushed stocks up about 10% for the year by mid-April…
To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:
Spring Allergies or Something Worse?
In April, the markets seem to be suffering from a case of spring allergies. One day they are feeling better and climbing higher, the next they weaken and drop. Like pollen-induced sneezes, the almost involuntary market spasms at each of the data points have resulted in a noticeable uptick in volatility after a very quiet first quarter. In fact, so far during April nearly half of the trading days, six out of 14, have seen more than a…
To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:
A Taxing Issue for Investors
This Tuesday, April 17, is tax day — and it may never be the same. The 2012 elections hold major consequences; one of them is tax policy. While there is much that we could present regarding the potential changes, we will constrain our comments to how tax changes may directly affect investors in the stock and bond markets…
To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:
What Investors Should Watch This Earnings Season
After a strong first quarter, the stock market, measured by the S&P 500 Index, got off to a weak start in the second quarter with a decline of -0.7% last week. Investors focused on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) lack of support for round three of quantitative easing (QE3) in the minutes that were released from the March Fed meeting. As we noted a few weeks ago in our commentary…
To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:
The Election Impact: The Presidency
This week marks six months until Election Day. During the next six months, the elections will likely become an increasingly potent driver of the markets. While we believe the impact for changes to the makeup of Congress may be more meaningful than the presidential election, we will tackle that in a later commentary. In this week’s commentary, we focus on the presidential election’s relationship…
To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:
10 Indicators to Watch for Another Spring Slide
In each of the past two years the stock market began a slide in the spring, a phenomenon often referred to by the old adage “sell in May and go away,” which lasted well into the summer months. Are stocks poised to repeat the pattern this year? We have identified 10 indicators to watch closely in the coming weeks that may warn of an impending slide…
To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:
Stocks’ Sweet Sixteen
It has been a sweet sixteen weeks for the S&P 500. The broad stock market index has had only three down weeks out of the past sixteen. There has not been a sixteen-week period with fewer weeks of losses in over 20 years — since the period ending September 1, 1989!
To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:
Best Bull Market Ever…Now What?
The three-year anniversary of the bull market took place on Friday, March 9. In the three years since March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 index is up 103% (with a 116% total return including dividends). This has been the strongest bull market since WWII…
To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below:
Arab Spring 2
Hollywood has a thing for sequels. So do the markets. In recent weeks, we have pointed to the rise in the stock market and the euro early this year as mirroring those gains of early 2011. While stock market gains and currency moves can certainly grab headlines, they lack the drama of a move in oil prices. The move higher in oil prices so far this year is similar…
To see the rest of this article, please click on the link below: