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Category Archives: Weekly Market Commentary

10 Indicators to Watch for a Spring Slide in the Stock Market

One year ago, we provided our list of the 10 indicators to watch that seemed to precede the stock market declines in 2010 and 2011 and accurately warned of another spring slide in 2012. We again look to these indicators for signs of a potential spring slide in the stock market this year. In early 2010, 2011, and 2012, run-ups in the stock market, similar to this year, pushed stocks…

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10 Indicators to Watch for a Spring Slide in the Stock Market

The Market’s March Madness

It has been a sweet sixteen weeks for the S&P 500. The broad stock market index has had only three down weeks out of the past sixteen. While this stretch is tied by the same period a year ago, it is important to note that there has not been a sixteen-week period with fewer weeks of losses in over 20 years…

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The Market’s March Madness

Dow: The Great and Powerful

The film, Oz: The Great and Powerful, the prequel to The Wizard of Oz, premiered last week. The story of how the wonderful wizard overcame the risks and prevailed worked its magic on moviegoers and proved popular with a strong box office showing. In the same week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) proved popular with investors as it powered its way to a new all-time high, as it overcame many risks to reach the fourth anniversary of the start of the current bull market from the low point on March 6, 2009…

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Dow: The Great and Powerful

Growing Gap Between Health of Consumers and Businesses

Last week’s data highlighted the growing gap between the health of businesses and consumers that is starting to contribute to a widening gap in the performance of consumer and business-driven stocks, as well. The economic reports released last week covering the time period of January and February 2013 for orders of equipment by businesses and manufacturing activity point to…

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Growing Gap Between Health of Consumers and Businesses

Gasoline Prices Racing Toward Danger Zone

Do you feel like you are paying too much for gasoline? At least you did not have to fill up for the Daytona 500. The special ethanol-blended fuel that NASCAR drivers put into their tanks at the race on Sunday cost more than twice the national average for regular unleaded. And at about 18 gallons per tank, that comes to about $150 a fill up in a car that gets single-digit miles per gallon! Even so, you are paying more. The U.S. average retail price of regular gasoline has risen to…

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Gasoline Prices Racing Toward Danger Zone

Investing in an Up-and-Down Market

On Friday, the S&P 500 was up about 7% from the start of the year. This is very similar to the gains through mid-February in 2011 and 2012. These steady gains then began to be revealed as the first stage of a volatile year that frequently exhibited 5 – 15% swings in the stock market, as you can see…

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Investing in an Up-and-Down Market

Seeing Shadows

As we all know, the Groundhog Day tradition holds that when a groundhog emerges from its burrow on February 2, if the groundhog sees its shadow the cold winter weather will continue for six more weeks. If not, spring will come early. This Groundhog Day, when looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow), we are seeing shadows of what took place in each of the past three years as a new milestone was reached. As a result, the current levels on the index may linger for six or more months…

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Seeing Shadows

Still Waiting for the Bonds-to-Stocks Rotation

The S&P 500 Index closed above 1500 for the first time since 2007 on Friday, January 25, 2013, after rising for eight days in a row — the longest streak of daily gains since a nine-day run ended in 2004. Speculation has emerged that the long-awaited rotation by investors from bonds into stocks may finally have arrived and is powering the rally…

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Still Waiting for the Bonds-to-Stocks Rotation

Same Europe, Different Crisis

While fourth quarter 2012 earnings results will again garner attention this week, investors may also be looking overseas to gauge market direction, since this week holds the first meeting of the year for European finance ministers. It is worth remembering that each spring for the past three years, the S&P 500 has started a slide of about 10% during the second quarter, led by events in Europe…

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Same Europe, Different Crisis

Consulting the Crystal Ball

It is inevitable that around this time of year, investors ponder what the year may hold in store for the markets. While we present many drivers in our Outlook 2013 that will combine to define the path of least resistance for the markets to follow in 2013, the interrelationships between economics, fiscal and monetary policy, geopolitics and corporate actions can seem complex. Investors can feel overwhelmed and…

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Consulting the Crystal Ball