Despite lowered expectations, some high-profile “misses” have occurred on global gross domestic product (GDP) readings for Q3 2015, causing concern for some market participants. The United States (23% of global GDP), China (13%), the United Kingdom (4%), South Korea (2%), Indonesia (1%), and Singapore (less than 1%) have reported Q3 gross domestic product (GDP). Together, those countries account for nearly 45% of global GDP. Third quarter 2015 GDP in three of the six nations beat or matched consensus expectations (China, South Korea, and Singapore), and three of the six countries reported results that either were in-line with or accelerated versus the prior period (South Korea, Indonesia, and Singapore). As a reminder, two-thirds of Q2 GDP reports beat or met expectations, while a similar percentage accelerated from Q1 2015 results; thus, the Q3 GDP results to date are lagging, relative to even lowered expectations. Still, with 55% of global GDP yet to report Q3 2015 results, the reporting season still has not reached the halfway point.
This week (November 8 – 15, 2015), another six countries are scheduled to report Q3 GDP, including the Eurozone (24% of global GDP), Japan (6%), Russia (2%), Poland (1%), Thailand (less than 1%), and Malaysia (less than 1%). Together, these nations — a nice mix of both developed (Eurozone and Japan) and emerging markets (Russia, Thailand, Poland, and Malaysia) — account for 34% of global GDP. Therefore, by the end of the week, countries representing nearly 80% of global GDP will have reported Q3 data. Over the second half of November and the first half of December 2015, another 15 – 20% of global GDP will report on Q3, including (ranked in order of size of economy) Brazil, India, Canada, Australia, Mexico, and Turkey, along with Switzerland, Sweden, Argentina, Norway, South Africa, Denmark, and the Philippines, again providing further insight into both developed and emerging market economies in the third quarter.
Global GDP Tracker: Fall 2015 Edition